Why Republican Success In 2024 Is Dependent On Success In 2022

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By: Saber Thoughts

Most Republicans are still reeling from the disaster, in so many different ways, that was the 2020 presidential election and are still stuck in last November.  Others are just turning their laser focus to 2024 and moving on.  However, a combination of both outlooks is necessary.  We cannot dwell on the 2020 election or be disheartened by it, over half a year has passed since then at this point, but we can also not just forget it.  Healthy criticism of Republicans’ own mistakes is imperative, as well as making election integrity a major part of the GOP policy platform going forward.  We also need to look ahead, but not with most of that attention on 2024.  No, right now, GOP voters should instead have a tunnel vision with the light at the end being the 2022 midterms for two reasons.  

First, the elections next November will be a pivotal moment for the America First movement.  Will it be a repeat of 2010 or 2014, where Republicans took back the House and then the Senate, respectively, with massive gains in each branch of Congress in Red Wave years, but with those sweeping into elected office being mediocre, moderate RINOs by and large?  Or will it be a much more productive version where it is a Republican-favorable midterm that sees the GOP take back both branches of Congress with many actual America First candidates?  The 2022 Republican primaries might be arguably the most important, most anticipated and most watched primaries in a long time.  There are many great primary challengers to incumbent House RINOs that are providing a big opportunity to clean house, pun intended, and further work towards repealing and replacing the useless GOP Establishment.  With at least 5 RINO Senators retiring, these open seats make it even easier to elect solid candidates since retirements of career politicians don’t happen everyday and primarying senators is usually very difficult.  These are enormous turning points that cannot be messed up, it’s now or never to get America First candidates elected to important offices.  

Second, if you want 2024 to be redemption for the dumpster fire that was the 2020 election cycle, Republicans need to knock it out of the park next year first.  Here are 6 possible factors in the 2022 elections that could play a role in determining the GOP’s level of success in 2024.

1. Momentum

If Republicans have a very good showing in the midterm elections, the energy factor will still be on their side by the time 2024 rolls around.  Having taken back control of the House and the Senate, the agenda of the Biden administration will be dead in the water and they may even be able to, hypothetically speaking, pass some legislation through both branches of Congress that could be seen as more bipartisan, such as infrastructure or strengthening American manufacturing, that Biden would sign, giving the GOP wins they can tout on the campaign trail for 2024.  The latter is not a likely scenario but at the very least they will be able to campaign from a position of strength, having taken back both branches of Congress, talking about how they stopped Biden’s Radical Left, Globalist agenda and laying out their legislative agenda if they retake the White House.  The thought of going from a Democrat trifecta, the first in a decade, to a Republican trifecta in just four year’s time would certainly energize the GOP voter base and keep the momentum on their side after the midterms, helping their chances in the ensuing presidential election.  

2. Will the suburbs swing back to the right?

It is no secret that Donald Trump underperformed in the suburbs in the 2020 election.  With his combative style of politics, personality, and ‘mean tweets’ apparently not being boring enough for the average suburbanite, this swing away from the Republicans last year is mainly being summed up as a result of Trump not being a good fit for the suburbs.  But, if that is the case, the Democrats likely won’t be a good fit for the long haul either.  Their radical policies and goal to change the country fundamentally won’t sit well with your average such voter the more their agenda becomes clear for all to see now that they are in total control in DC.  The suburbs are built around that ideal American image: white picket fence, good neighborhood, nuclear family.  The Democrats hate the family, they seek to destroy it, just one look at their social policies makes it clear that they screech at the word ‘traditional’.  If the Republicans campaign in the suburbs by clearly stating the Dems’ agenda and the policies they are pushing in real time instead of just yelling ‘Socialism!’, there should be a modest swing back in the suburbs, combined with Trump not being on the ballot, that could carry into 2024 if they get their suburban messaging right in 2022.  

3. Can in-roads continue in key voting blocs?

In 2016 and 2020, there were massive swings to the right among white working class voters and in the rural areas all across the nation and especially in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  There was a drop off in 2018 of the GOP vote share from these groups with Trump not on the ballot, so the question is will there be another drop off this midterm election or will these trends become more permanent for the Republicans even when Trump is not at the top of the ticket?  It certainly seems as if that will be the case as the party moves slowly towards becoming more working-class centric and this will be a key voter base the GOP will need to get out to vote on election day 2022 to have success.  Additionally, there were massive swings to the right among Hispanics in the 2020 election cycle, especially in the southern parts of Texas and Florida.  These swings might become a trend as they have held up in the 2021 elections so far.  For example, Republicans recently flipped the McAllen, TX mayorship, a city that is 85% Hispanic!  If the GOP can keep up and possibly improve on the rural and working class trends to the right, and rightward swing of the Hispanic vote, in the 2022 elections, this will be a very good sign for 2024 to makes these trends/swings permanent in the Republican direction, greatly boosting the party’s electoral viability.  

4. Battleground governorship elections

To me, some of the most important elections for the Republicans to win next year are key governorships.  There are six races that should be a main priority for the GOP to come out victorious in: holding Arizona and Georgia, and flipping Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Nevada is trending to the right and the state Democratic party is in shambles, so it is the perfect time to pick off that state.  All five other states have Republican-controlled state legislatures so having strong, America First GOP governors would be a massive victory.  Holding Georgia and keeping it out of the hands of Stacey Abrams is a must.  Retiring RINO Doug Ducey can be replaced with an actual conservative to keep the Republican trifecta intact in Arizona.  Wisconsin should be an easy pick-up if a strong candidate is put up against Gov. Tony Evers in the state that is fast trending to the right in an expected Red Wave year.  There is much anger against Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan due to her lockdowns hypocrisy and if James Craig, the former Detroit Police Chief, is the Republican nominee there is a good chance she is defeated.  Finally, in Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf is term-limited and Lou Barletta is running for the GOP nomination, giving the Republicans an early edge with a clear viable front-runner.  If the Republicans can win, or at least perform well, in all or most of these states, it will bode well for their electoral chances in 2024.  Additionally, if America First Republican governors can be elected in even one or two of the three aforementioned Rust Belt states, that would be enormous for the prospect of meaningful election integrity bills being passed in these states.  These three states are all trending to the right, but to avoid the same shenanigans as happened in this region in 2020, laws need to be passed that cannot currently due to Democrat governors being in power in all three.  These six states need to be treated as must-wins for the GOP to improve their 2024 national outlook, as these states will determine if the White House can be taken back in four years time.  For momentum and the all important issue of election integrity, Republicans need to perform well in these places in 2022.

5. How large of gains can Republicans make in Congress?

There is a world where the Republicans gain upwards of 40-50 House seats.  There is a world where the Republicans sweep the competitive Senate races and have 54 senators.  If these gains happen in both branches of Congress, or even gains close to this scenario, it will energize turnout in 2024 in a big way.  The chance to have the White House and both branches of Congress, but with an actual conservative legislative branch not one that is filled to the brim with RINOs like Paul Ryan, and with larger majorities in both branches with a better ability to actually enact meaningful wishlist items on the America First agenda, that will excite Republican voters.  Democrats always find a way to cram their bills through while the GOP compromises.  It would finally be our turn to get some major legislative wins.  Plus, with such a large House majority Republicans would hold that branch through the 2024 elections in all likelihood, similar to how the Dems did through the 2020 elections after gaining a respectable majority in the 2018 midterms.  This becomes even bigger in theory when you look at how terrible the 2024 Senate map looks for the Democrats.  The only two competitive Republican-held seats that they could try to flip are Texas and Florida but that would be extremely challenging in a non-midterm election cycle.  Montana, Ohio and West Virginia seats held by the Democrats by thin margins in a Blue Wave year in 2018 will be on the ballot in a presidential election year, making them almost automatic flips.  Not to mention with Senate races in all of the Rust Belt states, Nevada and Arizona happening in a year when Trump will possibly head the ticket once more, it is actually realistic that the GOP ends up with a filibuster-proof Senate majority going into 2025 of 60 or more seats.  For such strong majorities in either branch of Congress to even be a possibility, you need to get out and vote on election night of next year.  2022 can lay the groundwork for a Republican Congress for years to come with gains that can be built upon in 2024.  

6. Outcomes of election night 2022 may help determine 2024 GOP nominee

This is a pretty simple one: if Republicans take back both branches of Congress in 2022 with strong showings, pick up some governorships by performing well at the state level, and primary some RINOs out of office at the House and Senate levels, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee for POTUS in 2024.  It is practically a guarantee at this point.  A poor showing in 2022 from Republicans, like failing to retake the Senate, or only a modest Red Wave would throw Trump’s candidacy into question.

Election night 2024 can be like 2016 all over again, but even better.  A presidential election win by a certain orange fellow results in a Republican trifecta at the federal level, but this time there would be larger majorities for the GOP in both branches of Congress with more actual conservatives that want to put America First.  These next two election cycles will be very important for salvaging the future of America.  Get out and vote, be informed as to who and what you are voting for, and let’s take back this country.  The road to do so has to begin in 2022, not 2024.